Disney is facing one of its biggest box office disasters with the live-action release of Moana, which could result in losses of between $100 and $125 million. A puzzling figure for a film that had all the blessings: recognizable characters, a familiar audience, and high expectations. However, reality has proven very different, according to xataka.com.

Numbers that hurt: budget and box office

The film had a budget of $250 million, plus $145 million in marketing expenses. The result: barely $95 million at its global opening. Later projections suggest total box office earnings of around $250 million if the film completes its theatrical run, which would still leave Disney in the red.

To understand the scale of the disaster, it suffices to compare it with other major blockbusters. Lilo & Stitch, another remake the company launched relatively recently, topped $1 billion. The vast difference between both releases holds the key to understanding the failure.

Why did what seemed guaranteed fail?

At first glance, Moana didn't have the problems that sank other recent remakes. There's no casting controversy, no cultural backlash amplified on social media, no disastrous trailer. Critics have been harsh—barely 31% on Rotten Tomatoes—accusing the film of being a carbon copy of the 2016 animated version, but audiences have responded better, with 89% positive ratings.

The real problem lies in franchise saturation. Moana 2, released less than two years ago in November 2024, remains fresh in families' minds. That sequel was a global phenomenon that exceeded $1 billion and set the Thanksgiving opening record with $225 million in five days. Moreover, the original animated film is the most-watched movie in Disney+ history, with more than 1.5 billion hours streamed.

Wrong timing and fierce competition

Disney made a fundamental strategic error: it tried to repeat the nostalgic remake formula with a film that didn't yet need a relaunch. Lilo & Stitch had a gap of more than twenty years between the 2002 original and its live-action version. Moana has only accumulated a decade, and audiences already have access to two recent versions.

The opening weekend was especially competitive:

• Disney itself had Toy Story 5 in theaters
• Minions & Monsters was competing for the same family audience
• Disney+ and other streaming services offered free alternatives

When audiences can watch Moana 2 on streaming or wait for this live-action version to arrive on the platform soon, the urgency to go to the cinema disappears.

Questions that remain

This failure raises questions about Disney's strategy with its remakes. Following the strong results of Aladdin and The Lion King, the company assumed nostalgia was a winning formula. But Moana proves that nostalgia needs time to work. Pushing a property too hard, even if it has legions of followers, can backfire. Disney bet on reviving a film that audiences didn't yet miss.